Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US civilians be killed on US soil by enemy action?
One-OffUS PoliticsGeopolitiek2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 68.1%
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd11 feb 25, 16:48 UTC3 feb 29, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Iran strike US soil this year?
Manifold MarketsWill USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIsrael military action against Lebanon on?
PolymarketSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketRegels
This question is about civilian deaths due to state sponsored attacks only.
- Freelance terrorist attacks do not count unless found to have been directed and funded/equipped by a foreign government.
- The deaths need not however be directly due to conventional military operations, e.g. deaths due to covert Chinese government sabotage of US civilian infrastructure would count.
