Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
2040-2044 24.2%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
9
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+0.2 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd28 dec 24, 02:09 UTC2 jan 00, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CDC cut the childhood vaccine schedule below 11 diseases in 2026?
KalshiEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
Current US mortality rates (CDC National Vital Statistics, 2022):
- Overall population: ~0.9% annually (900 per 100,000)
- Ranges from 0.1% (age 30-34) to over 4% (age 80+)
- Accidental deaths account for ~0.04% annually (40 per 100,000)
- If all diseases and aging were cured, mortality would drop to accident-only rates (0.04%), representing a 95%+ reduction from current levels.
- Resolution Criteria
Open markten
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.3pt97%
- Yes+0.3pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 35,6K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Totaal volume
- € 83,5K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 864,2K
- 24u volume
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 915,8K
- 24u volume
- € 1,5K
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Totaal volume
- € 4,2K
- 24u volume
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor In What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2040-2044 op 24% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt In What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured? afgewikkeld?
- In What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2100 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt In What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Current US mortality rates (CDC National Vital Statistics, 2022):