Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]
TechOne-OffRuimtevaart3j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling5 100%Koploper van 15 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
24
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd22 nov 23, 17:27 UTC1 jan 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Regels
Options resolve YES when Starship has launched that many times and still hasn't launched with at least one human on board.
- (e.g. when Starship launches for the fifth time, "5" resolves YES and the other options remain open)
- When Starship launches with at least one human on board, all remaining options resolve NO.
- If Starship is permanently retired such that no more launches are expected, and it still hasn't flown any humans, all remaining options resolve NO.
- Only full-stack (booster and ship) launches count, but they don't have to be orbital launches.
- Launches before market creation count, starting with the April 20, 2023 launch.
