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This set of markets predicts the cumulative number of confirmed measles cases in humans in the territory of the United States in 2026, according to the CDC measles case counter, covering cases between January 1, 2026, at 05:00 UTC (12:00 AM ET) and January 1, 2027, at 04:59 UTC (11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026).
- Each of the markets below covers one cumulative threshold; any number of these markets may resolve to "Yes" (reaching a higher threshold also resolves all lower thresholds to "Yes").
- A market resolves to "Yes" if the CDC counter reports a cumulative 2026 total at or above the market's threshold.
- A market resolves to "Yes" at the first moment the CDC counter reports a cumulative 2026 total at or above its threshold; that resolution is final and is not affected by subsequent downward revisions.
- Markets whose thresholds have not been reached resolve to "No" based on the CDC counter value as of the deadline.
- Only cases reported by the CDC measles counter qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. state agencies or other sources.
