How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?
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This set of markets predicts the number of the 15 named U.S. executive-branch officials below who, before January 1, 2027, will either leave their position, formally announce they will leave their position, or whose agency announces that they have left or will leave their position.
- Each market corresponds to a different, mutually exclusive numeric range of officials.
- Only one market will resolve "Yes".
- The 15 officials are:
- Secretary of State and National Security Advisor — Marco Rubio Secretary of the Treasury — Scott Bessent Secretary of Defense — Pete Hegseth Attorney General — Pam Bondi Secretary of Health & Human Services — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Secretary of Commerce — Howard Lutnick Secretary of Homeland Security — Kristi Noem Director of National Intelligence — Tulsi Gabbard Director of the Central Intelligence Agency — John Ratcliffe OMB Director — Russell Vought White House Chief of Staff — Susie Wiles DOJ (FBI) Director — Kash Patel Border Czar — Tom Homan Senior Counselor for Trade/Manufacturing — Peter Navarro Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor — Stephen Miller Any person holding more than one of these listed roles at the moment this market opens must leave both roles to count (this notably applies to Marco Rubio, who holds the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor positions simultaneously).
- The Primary Designated Source is the official White House website, the Federal Register, and statements from each named agency.