Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 04:28 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 72.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto29 ott 23, 02:14 UTC2 gen 30, 06:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will ACE recommend any orgs doing direct (non-research) interventions in wild animal suffering by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 26, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on Oct 26, 2026?
KalshiRegole
To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that I believe qualify as wild-animal-welfare grants, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.
- See this EA Forum tag for a definition of "Wild animal welfare" as a cause area.
- For the purposes of this question, fishing-related interventions are considered farmed-animal welfare.
- "EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel.
- This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.
- For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like farmed-invertebrate welfare and climate geoengineering!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!
