Will we learn that somebody started/extended a wildfire to win money on a prediction market before September 2027
MeteoOne-Off10mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 77.6%
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto19 lug 26, 15:57 UTC31 ago 27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
Must be real money prediction markets.
- Based on credible reporting, does not need to be a conviction.
- Conspiring with others to start a fire, bribing someone to start the fire for you etc. is enough to resolve YES, if it results in an intentional fire.
- Actively helping an existing fire to spread, including making it difficult for firefighters or other services to respond to the fire appropraitely (or conspiring to do it) is also enough to resolve YES.
- Inaction is by itself not enough to resolve YES.
- Partly subjective resolution, won't bet on this market.