Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 77.9%
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto4 mag 26, 20:35 UTC31 mag 29, 23:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) Victoria region time-weighted annual average wholesale spot price for calendar year 2028 exceeds A$115/MWh, as reported by AEMO in its Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2028 release and the 2028 calendar-year summary on the AEMO data dashboard.
- Resolution evaluated once on the settlement date against the published figure.
- Settlement: 31 May 2029 — about five months after year-end, allowing AEMO time to publish confirmed calendar-year averages.
- Created: 2026-05-04
- The forward drivers, project schedules, and strike calibration below reflect public information available on the creation date.
- Coal-plant retirement dates, transmission and storage commissioning, gas-supply contracts, capacity auctions, and policy interventions in electricity markets have moved repeatedly in both directions over the past several years and are likely to continue moving.
Mercati aperti
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 94,7K €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 11,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 35,2K €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+2.5pt51.9%
- 27°C+2.5pt23.1%
- 25°C-2.0pt17.3%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volume totale
- 356,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 13,3K €
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volume totale
- 2,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 11,9K €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+4.5pt71.3%
- Moonshot-0.8pt26.7%
- Z.ai-0.8pt1%
+8 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 78% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh??
- Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 maggio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) Victoria region time-weighted annual average wholesale spot price for calendar year 2028 exceeds A$115/MWh, as reported by AEMO in its Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2028 release and the 2028 calendar-year summary on the AEMO data dashboard.