Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: Yes (39.9%)
Risolto: 8 ago 2026, 13:42
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 60.1%
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 giorni fa
Obsoleto14 lug 26, 12:507 ago 26, 21:00
Trend
60.1%
39.9%
Regole
Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).
- Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
- Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
- The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
- Resolves YES iff Spearman ρ ≥ 0.90 for eigenvector AND out-degree centrality, ρ < 0.85 for betweenness, AND ≥ 8 of the top-10 eigenvector states shared.
- (Compound = the registered "HOLD" criterion; betweenness reshuffling is part of the forecast.)
