Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?
PoliticaGeopoliticaOne-OffPolitica USA2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 69.4%
Previsori
102
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo18 gen 26, 11:47 UTC20 gen 29, 11:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump be removed from office before January 20th of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill USA use military force to take control over either Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiWill Nancy Pelosi resign her office before the midterms?
KalshiWill Don Bacon resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if Trump deploys U.S. military forces to Greenland without Danish/Greenlandic consent in an attempt to establish control over any portion of its territory, AND leaves office before January 20, 2029 via:
- Impeachment and Senate conviction, OR
- Resolves NO if he deploys such forces and completes his term (or leaves due to e.g. death or incapacitation)
- Resolves N/A if no unauthorized military deployment to Greenland occurs.
- Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Removal via military coup or other non-constitutional means would resolve NO.
- The market specifically tracks removal through constitutional accountability (impeachment/conviction) or political pressure (resignation) only.
