Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
ExchangeGeopoliticaOne-OffMedio OrienteRussia / UcrainaCina2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 09:52 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 82.6%
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Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto6 ago 25, 04:23 UTC1 gen 27, 23:59 UTC
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Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution will be based on this Wikipedia page or its successor, if possible.
- If it significantly changes criteria or ceases to update, I will do my best to resolve based on other credible reporting and the same criteria.
- Major war is defined as 10,000 or more combat-related deaths in current or previous year.
- Nuclear powers will include the US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
- The conflict in question must not currently be listed on the "major wars" section of the page in question, as of question creation.
- That list is the Myanmar conflict, Arab-Israeli conflict, Insurgency in the Maghreb, Russo-Ukrainian War, and Sudanese civil war.
