Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?

Manifold Markets quota No al 56% al 9 agosto 2026.

Come viene liquidato Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

MiningOne-Off

Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Questo mercato si è risolto: Yes (43.7%)

Risolto: 8 ago 2026, 13:42

Risoluzione verificata dal provider

CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 56.3%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 12 giorni fa

Obsoleto

14 lug 26, 13:077 ago 26, 21:00

Trend

56.3%

Sì

43.7%

Regole

Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

MiningOne-Off

Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Questo mercato si è risolto: Yes (43.7%)

Risolto: 8 ago 2026, 13:42

Risoluzione verificata dal provider

CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 56.3%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 12 giorni fa

Obsoleto

14 lug 26, 13:077 ago 26, 21:00

Trend

56.3%

Sì

43.7%

Regole

Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems

Domande frequenti

Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?: Manifold Markets quota No al 56% al 9 agosto 2026.
Quando si risolve Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?: Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) dovrebbe risolversi il 7 agosto 2026.
Come viene liquidato Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?: Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

Domande frequenti

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