Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the next president die while in office??

Manifold Markets quota No al 85% al 29 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will the next president die while in office??

Will the next president die while in office? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 febbraio 2029.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 85%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 19 minuti fa

2 ago 23, 05:44 UTC2 feb 29, 07:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

For the purpose of this market "next president" is the president elected in 2024 (and thus could be President Biden).

Market is not impacted if Biden dies before starting his second term - the relevant president would be the person who starts that term.
Resolves to no if the next president resigns or is removed, even if they then die before their term would have ended.