Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 92%
Previsori
45
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
3 ott 23, 23:35 UTC2 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will China successfully complete a Mars Sample Return mission before the USA and Europe do?
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Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX get funding from Trump’s NASA for a Mars mission?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketRegole
Ending this market in 2030, as the latest IRB report estimates this as the launch date.
- https://spacenews.com/nasa-mars-sample-return-budget-and-schedule-unrealistic-independent-review-concludes/
- [link preview]Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
- If the mission is NASA-led and has a primary purpose of retrieving samples, it is considered MSR.
- Missions where the primary purpose is not sample return (e.g., humans landing on Mars) do not count as MSR.
- Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications: