Previsione della comunità attuale
No 97.7%
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto20 set 26, 22:29 UTC30 apr 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if any candidate in the 2027 French presidential election (or a snap presidential election, if one is triggered earlier) wins an absolute majority of the votes cast (more than 50%) in the first round, thereby winning the presidency outright without the need for a runoff.
- This market will resolve to NO if no candidate secures more than 50% of the cast votes in the first round, resulting in a second-round runoff between the top two candidates.
- Sources of Truth:
- Official election data published by the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l'Intérieur): https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/
- Official proclamations by the Constitutional Council (Conseil constitutionnel): https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/
