Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 71.8%
Previsori
26
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto1 ago 26, 14:44 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Situational Awareness raises new capital by which date?
PolymarketSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
PolymarketWill Situational Awareness LP raise fresh capital after its July 2026 unwind?
Manifold MarketsWill Citadel start a prediction market making desk by the midterms?
Manifold Markets$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketCalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
KalshiRegole
[tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.
- Compares Situational Awareness (incl. renames/successors managing substantially the same funds) vs. Citadel Advisors.
- Citadel Securities is a market maker with no AUM and doesn't factor in.
- Uses the latest figure for each firm dated on or before Dec 31, 2029, from company statements, regulatory filings, or credible financial press (Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/Reuters); both figures must be within 12 months of each other.
- If a net AUM figure is unavailable for either firm, Form ADV regulatory AUM is used for both.
- YES iff SA's figure strictly exceeds Citadel's.
Mercati aperti
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M96%
- $25M95%
- $50M85%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 180,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 180,1K €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+8.0pt57.6%
- 65-89+13.0pt34.3%
- 90-114+0.5pt4%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.5pt97%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet+0.1pt1%
+6 altri esiti
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-19918.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt17.8%
- 160-17913.9%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 182,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 38,9K €
KALSHICalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Above 680,000+4.0pt98%
- Above 690,00094%
- Above 710,000-1.0pt28%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 60,4K €
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest Company end of December 2026?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 72% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029??
- Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: [tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.