Previsione della comunità attuale
No 88.1%
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto4 feb 23, 00:20 UTC1 gen 28, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Bill Gurley create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Romania?
Polymarket46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament Winner
PolymarketFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
KalshiRegole
Nick Bostrom, director of the Future of Humanity Institute.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
Mercati aperti
SportsKALSHIPHI Eagles vs TEN Titans
- Philadelphia+2.0pt77.2%
- Tennessee-1.0pt22.8%
- Volume totale
- 5,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 4,4 Mln €
POLYMARKETLoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
- Game 1 Winner100%
- Game 2 Winner100%
- Game 3 Winner100%
+58 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 3,1 Mln €
KALSHIMIN Vikings vs CHI Bears
- Chicago-4.0pt62.4%
- Minnesota+4.0pt37.6%
- Volume totale
- 3,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,7 Mln €
KALSHIBiltmore Championship Asheville Winner
- Jacob Bridgeman+27.4pt32%
- Neal Shipley-18.0pt27%
- Ricky Castillo+12.0pt22%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIGB Packers vs NY Jets
- Green Bay61.4%
- New York J38.6%
- Volume totale
- 2,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,4 Mln €
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Buffalo11%
- Los Angeles R9.3%
- Baltimore6.8%
+29 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 104,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 Mln €
- PIT Steelers vs NE Patriots
- Philadelphia vs Tennessee: Spread
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
- CIN Bengals vs HOU Texans
- Herrero Linana vs Burel
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
- CAR Panthers vs ATL Falcons
- Green Bay vs New York J: Spread
- Jaguars vs. Broncos
- College Football National Championship Winner
- Philadelphia vs Tennessee: Touchdowns
- Carolina vs Atlanta: Spread
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 88% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??
- Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Nick Bostrom, director of the Future of Humanity Institute.