Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 09:52 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 97.7%
Previsori
14
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto22 gen 26, 04:51 UTC24 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- Neutron will resolve YES if Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket completes its first orbital flight before December 25, 2026.
- The first flight is expected to be in mid-2026, with the first flight vehicle expected to be shipped to Wallops during the first quarter of 2026.
- Resolution will be based on official confirmation from Rocket Lab or credible space industry sources (e.g., Spaceflight Now, NASASpaceflight.com) that the rocket has successfully reached orbit.
- A successful first flight requires reaching orbit; reaching suborbital altitudes or clearing the pad does not count.
- The market resolves NO if the first orbital flight does not occur by December 25, 2026.
