Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will mana become less valuable by 2028? (Experimental)?

Manifold Markets quota No al 57.3% al 25 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will mana become less valuable by 2028? (Experimental)?

Will mana become less valuable by 2028? (Experimental) dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati

Dati al 25 ott 2026, 21:52 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 57.3%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 1 ora fa

In ritardo

11 set 25, 20:29 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

At the start of 2028, resolve YES if and only if there is some option (any bulk) that costs less than $1 per 120 mana.

Note that the equilibrium probability for this market is lower than its true probability.
This is because betting NO pays out high-value mana (by definition) and loses low-value mana (again by definition), while YES does the opposite.
(the most extreme case would be something like "will Manifold still exist", where the equilibrium would be 100%).
This is also experimental to see what happens in a situation like this