Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2030??

Manifold Markets quota No al 72.6% al 30 ottobre 2026.

Come viene liquidato Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2030??

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: based on this list https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml?list=open

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 72.6%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 18 ore fa

Obsoleto

1 lug 26, 05:49 UTC30 giu 30, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

based on this list https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml?list=open

We only care about "standard open" or its future equivalent if there is one.
The market will resolve based on the July 1st 2030 FIDE rating list (published June 30th 2030) as this list reflects Magnus's rating through the end of June 2030 or best similar.
If he quits FIDE or still plays but isn't FIDE rated, that will be a NO at the due date.