Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 57.5%
Previsori
43
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 53 minuti fa
In ritardo24 set 25, 16:51 UTC24 set 27, 16:25 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Polymarket and Kalshi are currently hotly competing for prediction market dominance, and are about the same size.
- This resolves once that is no longer the case, and one is dramatically more successful than the other.
- [image]I don't want to define a single metric since that can be goodharted, but I'm looking for roughly a 90/10 split or better of general prediction market mindspace and finance-space.
- (Between them only.
- The emergence of a third competitor doesn't factor in.)
- For comparison I would say that Kalshi seems on vibes to be pretty close to beating PredictIt, or possibly has already.