Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 50.5%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto5 gen 26, 04:23 UTC7 gen 27, 04:10 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will OpenAI make a profit in 2025?
Manifold MarketsWill I find a way to archive Mojang's JIRA/Atlassian instance before it goes down? (Please make suggestions.)
Manifold MarketsWhat is the best way to make forward progress in theoretical physics?
Manifold MarketsWill we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?
Manifold MarketsPredict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketLargest Company end of December 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves NO if I can't or don't find a way by then.
- I'm not counting earlier trade gains/losses as "profit at resolve-time.* Resolves no sooner than Jan 6th 2026 and may freely resolve otherwise, either way, at my discretion.
- I may trade on this market; however I won't buy a large YES position to try to swallow all the upside directly before close if enough advantage to share is just freely sitting around, and obviously I cannot make a profit by resolving NO.
- I will make a good-faith effort to lock in a profit of at least 1M in the event that I resolve YES, though it is possible that a very carefully-timed trade will wipe out my upside while I'm resolving the market.
- Other traders agree that in the event that this occurs that there in no crying in baseball.
- I do not promise to not scheme or plot market moves behind closed doors.
