Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth?
One-OffWeather3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 89.3%
Previsori
27
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto13 gen 24, 17:42 UTC13 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 9, 2026?
KalshiRegole
Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.
- For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C. This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or higher than 2.00 degrees Celsius for any year before 2030 (i.e. 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, or 2029).
Mercati aperti
Weather
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
- 32°C+90.5pt100%
- 25°C or below-0.1pt0%
- 26°C0%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 141,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 129,1K €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- 22°C+77.4pt100%
- 17°C or below-1.1pt0%
- 18°C-4.0pt0%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+68.5pt100%
- 21°C or below-0.3pt0%
- 22°C-0.9pt0%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- 93° or above87.6%
- 91° to 92°7.6%
- 89° to 90°1.9%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 72,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 71,8K €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Miami+44.0pt99%
- Chicago+13.0pt99%
- Houston64%
+19 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 71,6K €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 9?
- 28°C+47.0pt100%
- 24°C or below0%
- 25°C-0.1pt0%
+8 altri esiti
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Milan on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 9?
- Highest temperature in London on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Taipei on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 9?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 89% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth??
- Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth? dovrebbe risolversi il 13 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.