Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years?
Health & MedicineOne-Off11aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 52.7%
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Metodologia
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Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto17 ago 25, 10:05 UTC31 dic 37, 11:04 UTC
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KalshiRegole
Quoting his article:
- I would bet on the following: A therapy whose sole intended mechanism involves amyloid production or clearance, in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, will, in the next 12 years, achieve a slowdown of cognitive decline of at least 75%, with a p-value below 0.001, in its preregistered primary cognitive endpoint (or an average of all such endpoints if more than one exists).
- I’d eventually expect better than 75% efficacy, but getting stuff to work takes time, and I wanted to make a prediction which can be tested in a reasonable timeframe.
- On the other hand, if a clinical trial completes earlier than 12 years from now (perhaps [73], reading out in 2027), sustains extremely good amyloid clearance at the preclinical stage, and has a good safety profile, but doesn’t make substantial progress towards this 75% goal, then I would consider this prediction refuted in advance.
- Resolves yes if the first condition occurs by the end of the market
- https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-defense-of-the-amyloid-hypothesis
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 53% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years??
- Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2037.
- Come viene liquidato Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Quoting his article: