Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?
BitcoinOne-OffCriptoMiddle EastCommoditiesGeopolitica22gManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 97.9%
Previsori
59
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
5 mag 26, 07:26 UTC1 ott 26, 12:00 UTC
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
This market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $85,000 USD at any point before the Strait of Hormuz is officially designated as "freely open" by a consensus of international maritime governing bodies or major geopolitical authorities.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- For the price of Bitcoin, the market will use the daily closing price as reported on CoinMarketCap.
- Regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz, "freely open" refers to the absence of significant state-imposed blockades, active military seizure of commercial vessels, or officially declared closures by relevant regional authorities (primarily Iran) that impede international shipping traffic.
- In the event of ambiguity, resolution will rely on reports from authoritative maritime security organizations, such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) or major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press) confirming that shipping traffic is unencumbered by formal state intervention.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world's liquified natural gas and oil transit.