Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31?
One-OffPoliticaSpaceTecnologiaGeopoliticaMiddle EastEurope3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 86.9%
Previsori
2
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto26 ago 26, 16:05 UTC31 dic 26, 11:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in US/Iran peace negotiations
Manifold MarketsWill Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the UN’s Security Council permanent members leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill the US exit the Outer Space Treaty?
KalshiWill Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if a United Nations body formally adopts a mandate to negotiate a legally binding instrument on autonomous weapon systems by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- Nonbinding appeals, expert meetings, working groups without a negotiating mandate, and negotiations outside the UN do not count.
- Source: United Nations.
- The market closes twelve hours before the deadline.
- Related markets from today's news
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 87% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31??
- Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if a United Nations body formally adopts a mandate to negotiate a legally binding instrument on autonomous weapon systems by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.