Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
SportOne-OffChessMacro & EconomyBusiness & Corporate1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 92%
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto8 ago 26, 07:13 UTC1 gen 28, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWe're in an economically stagnant decade (2022-2032)
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk buy a major sports team before 2027?
KalshiCanada home price above C$700K in December?
KalshiBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Codename: LEAP
- Resolves YES if a model released after this market opened and before January 1, 2028 first appears on Epoch’s general Capabilities Index (ECI) leaderboard at least 9 points above the previous record.
- “Previous record” means the highest displayed central general-ECI score belonging to an earlier-released model.
- Confidence bounds and domain-specific scores do not count.
- The score must be published by April 30, 2028.
- Ordinary later leaderboard recalculations do not undo a genuine first-published jump.
Mercati aperti
SportsKALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R13.9%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle-1.0pt5.7%
+29 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 77,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 3,4 Mln €
KALSHIInoue vs Adkar
- Hina Inoue99%
- Vaishnavi Adkar1%
- Volume totale
- 1,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 Mln €
KALSHIAmgen Irish Open Winner
- Rory McIlroy+1.0pt14%
- Jon Rahm-0.2pt8%
- Tyrrell Hatton-0.5pt5%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHISekulic vs Matsuda
- Philip Sekulic93.1%
- Koki Matsuda6.9%
- Volume totale
- 1,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Bayern Munich+1.0pt15.1%
- Arsenal-1.0pt13.2%
+33 altri esiti
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: Alliance vs TYLOO (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- 1 Winner100%
- 2 Winner100%
- Match Winner100%
+21 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1 Mln €
- 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Counter-Strike: 9z vs G2 (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles R
- MVP Winner?
- Nflgame 26 SEP 09 Nesea
- MLB: Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers (Sep 9, 2026)
- Ogura vs Hong
- Amgen Irish Open End of Round 1 Leader
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles: Spread
- NFL 2026-27: Champion
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
- US Open Women's Singles Winner
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 92% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028??
- Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Codename: LEAP