Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 69.5%
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto2 set 22, 20:22 UTC1 gen 30, 08:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?
Manifold MarketsWill a Hantavirus Vaccine be created in 2026? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketRegole
A natural pathogen that escapes from a lab or is deliberately released does not count.
- It must be a pathogen that did not develop in the wild.
- Modified forms of wild pathogens count iff the modifications affect its behavior such that it is a greater threat to humans.
- (If there's a tradeoff involved, it must have become more of a threat on at least one axis.
- For example, if smallpox is modified to be more deadly but less transmissible, that qualifies.)
- If there are significant doubts as to whether the pathogen originated in a laboratory or in the wild, it does not qualify.
Mercati aperti
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volume totale
- 15,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 18,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume totale
- 916K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5K €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 863,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 1K €
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 70% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030??
- Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: A natural pathogen that escapes from a lab or is deliberately released does not count.