Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a California State entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??

Manifold Markets quota No al 92% al 2 novembre 2026.

Will a California State entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 92%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 15 minuti fa

31 gen 23, 06:42 UTC1 gen 28, 07:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

The account cannot be owned by a person who works for the state of California - the government entity itself must own it.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.