Who will be the Democratic nominee, and will they win the 2028 presidential election?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezione2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 24 ott 2026, 11:23 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSomeone else is the Democratic nominee and that person WINS the presidency 13.6%In testa tra 22 esiti
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto26 ago 26, 11:52 UTC7 nov 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Conditional on (x) being the 2028 democratic nominee, (x) wins the 2028 presidential election
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Manifold MarketsLA-04 Democratic nominee?
KalshiLA-05 Democratic nominee?
KalshiRegole
This market resolves to the option that correctly identifies the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee and whether they win the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
- Democratic Nominee: The individual who officially secures the Democratic Party's presidential nomination at the 2028 Democratic National Convention (DNC) or is formally certified by the Democratic National Committee to appear on the general election ballot in November 2028.
- Winning the Presidency: The candidate will be treated as having won the 2028 presidential election once there is a clear consensus among major reputable news organizations that they are the president-elect.
- For this purpose, “clear consensus” means the Associated Press has called the race for the candidate and at least two of Reuters, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, ABC News, CBS News, or NBC News have done the same.
- Resolution Rules:
- Only one option will resolve YES; all other options will resolve NO.
