Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 12:06 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
Niftski 45.3%In testa tra 6 esiti
Niftski 45.3%Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto6 ago 26, 20:11 UTC1 gen 30, 21:01 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more worldwide than the original after one year of its release?
Manifold MarketsWill a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030
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Manifold MarketsWorlds 2026: Winner
PolymarketLoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
PolymarketRegole
Incredibly, for the first time ever, it seems like a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun is actually going to humanly happen.
- Both LeKukie and Niftski are now explicitly aiming for a perfect run, something which was previously absurd to me as someone who has been following SMB1 (no L+R) any% progress for the past decade.
- The current world record at time of market creation is only 6 frames off of perfect.
- Resolution happens when someone gets a 4:54.265 (namely, 17,685 frames of gameplay) that is verified on the any% page on speedrun.com.
- If the current input swapping ruleset kerfuffle causes contention I'll defer to the speedrun.com leaderboard.
- In the unlikely event that a new strategy is discovered that lowers our notion of "perfect" (which hasn't happened in over 15 years!) I will continue to evaluate based on the first person to get the current 4:54.265 goal time that everyone is competing over.
