Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNot before 2050 38.8%In testa tra 9 esiti
Previsori
48
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 40 minuti fa
16 ago 25, 11:55 UTC1 gen 50, 10:49 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will China invade Taiwan
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
LimitlessRegole
Creating this market because I think the year by year probabilities in my other market are a bit off (at market creation 25% chance of an invasion in 2028 which is a US election year).
- This will resolve to the same date as the other market - have fun arbitraging! See the other market for more detailed resolution criteria.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-mega-mar)(I did some initial trades on this market to bring the probabilities in line with the other market, but won't trade further expect to exit that position)
