Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What will be the market share of sodium-ion batteries in EVs by 2030??

Manifold Markets quota 15% to 25% al 26.9% al 25 ottobre 2026.

What will be the market share of sodium-ion batteries in EVs by 2030?

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

15% to 25% 26.9%

In testa tra 5 esiti

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multiple choice

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Variazione 7g

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Aggiornato 1 ora fa

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8 gen 24, 18:59 UTC1 gen 30, 23:59 UTC

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Sodium-ion batteries appear to be in the process of commercialization, with multiple companies claiming to mass-produce them today.

Meanwhile academics claim to have mitigated all their downsides except the lower energy density, and the cost is expected to be lower than lithium-ion.
Not requiring lithium or cobalt in manufacturing also mitigates some geopolitical risks due to the uneven distribution of these minerals.
"Market share" is defined as "% of new EVs sold globally powered by sodium-ion batteries".
If multiple types of batteries are used, the EV counts as powered by sodium-ion if this battery type accounts for at least 50% of the total capacity.
I will not bet on this market.