Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2029 24.2%-0.4ptIn testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-0.3 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
17 nov 23, 22:04 UTC1 gen 34, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsWill Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France a record-breaking 6 times?
Manifold MarketsWill Tadej Pogacar win the 2027 Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
PolymarketUS Open Men's Singles Winner
Kalshi2027 Pro Football Champion
KalshiRegole
Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.
- If he appears on the startlist but does not actually start the stage, that is probably a DNS.
- If he appears on the startlist, starts the first stage, and quits before it is over, that is probably NOT a DNS.
- If the Tour de France is not held in any season, I am going to N/A this question because that is simply not what I am interested in.
- I don't want anyone to need to calculate "The TDF stops existing" into their valuations.
- So just assume the TDF happens every year.
Mercati aperti
SportsPOLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,9 Mln €
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 24,5 Mln €
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Volume totale
- 2,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 24,6 Mln €
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Volume totale
- 1,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Volume totale
- 1,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,6 Mln €
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France??
- Manifold Markets quota 2029 al 24% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France??
- What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2034.
- Come viene liquidato What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.