Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2029 23.4%In testa tra 10 esiti
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18
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto17 nov 23, 22:04 UTC1 gen 34, 05:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France?
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KalshiRegole
Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.
- If he appears on the startlist but does not actually start the stage, that is probably a DNS.
- If he appears on the startlist, starts the first stage, and quits before it is over, that is probably NOT a DNS.
- If the Tour de France is not held in any season, I am going to N/A this question because that is simply not what I am interested in.
- I don't want anyone to need to calculate "The TDF stops existing" into their valuations.
- So just assume the TDF happens every year.