Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 75.9%
Previsori
31
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto17 ott 23, 18:41 UTC2 gen 39, 07:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Where will it rain on Oct 18, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Oct 18, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 18, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain this weekend (Oct 17 - Oct 18)?
KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on Oct 18, 2026?
KalshiWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 84 F on October 18, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)?
ForecastExRegole
This question resolves true if, looking back in 15 years, it's obviously the case that:
- "In 2023, the marginal smart, ethical person should have gone into AI rather than climate"
- This question resolves false if it's obviously the case that:
- "In 2023, the marginal smart, ethical person should have gone into climate rather than AI"
- Resolves n/a otherwise.
- I'll assume that in either field the person would work on the top 5% of most effective interventions, as judged post-hoc, and that we're only evaluating impact (not salary, personal fit, other idiosyncratic factors).