Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 57.1% al 8 ottobre 2026.

Come viene liquidato In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment??

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Conjecture is an alignment firm founded by Conor Leahy, also founder(?) of Eleuther AI.

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Sì 57.1%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Aggiornato 37 minuti fa

18 dic 22, 20:22 UTC18 dic 27, 23:59 UTC

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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.

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Regole

Conjecture is an alignment firm founded by Conor Leahy, also founder(?) of Eleuther AI.

They have officially short (5 year) timelines until doom, mostly work on interpretability, generation of new alignment research agendas via their work in Refine and SERI MATS, and convincing ML researchers and their labs that alignment is an important hard problem.
Some have expressed worry that their short timelines and high probability of doom will lead them toward advocating for more risky strategies, making us worse off in >5 year timeline worlds.
This market is, of course, conditional on Conjecture being wrong that we'll all die in 5 years.
I'd like to know how much damage they do in that world.