Quali sono le probabilità attuali per If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving??

Manifold Markets quota No al 89.1% al 24 ottobre 2026.

If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving?

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 89.1%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 8 minuti fa

23 nov 23, 01:14 UTC29 nov 27, 07:59 UTC

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Esito24hProbabilità

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One of Geert Wilder's desires if he becomes PM is a referendum on the Netherlands' EU membership.

Wilders’ election program includes calls for a referendum on the Netherlands leaving the European Union, a total halt to accepting asylum-seekers and migrant pushbacks at Dutch borders.
Resolves N/A if such a referendum does not happen before 2027.
Resolves YES if over 50% of the popular vote votes for leaving the EU (even if a different threshold is chosen or aggregation is done at some district level).
Resolves NO if less than 50% favor leaving.
If it's literally exactly equal to the vote, I'll resolve to 50%.