Before 2030 infectious agent created by humans at a non-governmental entity kills 5% of human population.
Salute e medicinaOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 91.7%
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto31 lug 23, 07:07 UTC1 gen 30, 15:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Before 2030, humans who are part of a non-governmental entity create an infectious agent that kills over 5% of humans.
- The humans and their agency have to take credit.
- The agency is a private entity that does not control a sovereign state and does not wish to have control of a sovereign state.
- Culpability must be independently confirmed.
- Casualty figures must come from an agency which has the ability to make a reliable estimate.
- If an AGI is involved in the creation of the pathogen, it must not have had the idea to create it.
