Quali sono le probabilità attuali per At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought??

Manifold Markets quota No al 64.7% al 29 ottobre 2026.

Come viene liquidato At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought??

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought?

One-OffMeteo1a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 64.7%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 20 ore fa

Obsoleto

1 set 26, 04:43 UTC31 ago 28, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought?

Yes: As reported by the US Drought Monitor, large parts of California are in at least a moderate drought as per the U.S. Drought Monitor at UNL.
No: Most of California is either not in a drought, or at most "abnormally dry".
The measure is if there's a drought in August, so this won't close early if there's a widespread drought sooner.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?West
Resolution criteria