AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?
One-OffManifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: Yes (44.4%)
Risolto: 6 ago 2026, 03:14
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Aggiornato 14 giorni fa
Obsoleto13 ott 22, 15:526 ago 26, 3:14
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Yes44.4%
No55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
Regole
By "hallucinate random nonsense" I mean the thing where language models will occasionally just say totally ridiculous out of left field stuff, or blatantly be wrong about the current conversational context (e.g. tell you you said a thing you very definitely did not say).
- Resolves YES if my subjective impression is that language models basically don't do this anymore, or if we end up getting a reasonable benchmark for this and very good performance on that benchmark.
- Update 2026-01-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator indicates the resolution is "pretty close" to being determined.
- The key factor will be where the line is drawn between "out of left field stuff" and "normal amounts of factual incorrectness" when making the final subjective determination.