Margin of victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election?
Politica
KalshiChiusoVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativaQuesto mercato si è risolto: TISZA, 12-15% (97%)
Risolto: 19 apr 2026, 01:09
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Probabilità implicita attualeTISZA, 12-15% 91.5%+3.7ptIn testa tra 11 esiti
Qualita del mercato
11 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
0 €
Liquidità
0 €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
-
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 111 giorni fa
Obsoleto2 apr 26, 19:0012 apr 27, 14:00
Trend
0.9%
6.6%
0.9%
91.5%
0%
0%
Questo mercato è chiuso. Il trading simulato è disponibile solo sui mercati aperti.
Confronta le piattaforme· TISZA, 12-15%
Ordinato per qualità del mercato, poi liquidità e volume 24h| Piattaforma | Qualità | Probabilità | vs riferimento | Volume 24h | Liquidità | Aggiornamento | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiQuesta paginaMigliore in assoluto | Bassa | 97% | — | 0 € | 0 € | 111 giorni fa | |
 PredictIt69% di corrispondenza · verificato | — | 99% | — | — | — | 105 giorni fa | Apri → |
Disponibile anche su PredictIt
What will be the margin of victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election?
Chiusi
+79.0pt99%
+2.0pt3%
-18.0pt2%
+7 altri esiti
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITRegole
If the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election falls within 15% to 18%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Note: The party list vote will be used to resolve this market.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by TISZA minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if TISZA loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by TISZA minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if TISZA loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if TISZA wins, or the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if TISZA does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If TISZA runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural TISZA will be summed.
- If TISZA wins the election, the margin will be positive. If TISZA loses the election, the margin will be negative. If TISZA ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where TISZA is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
I dati di confronto sono solo informativi. I prezzi e la liquidità possono variare.
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If the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election falls within 15% to 18%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Note: The party list vote will be used to resolve this market.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by TISZA minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if TISZA loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by TISZA minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if TISZA loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if TISZA wins, or the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if TISZA does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If TISZA runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural TISZA will be summed.
- If TISZA wins the election, the margin will be positive. If TISZA loses the election, the margin will be negative. If TISZA ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where TISZA is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).