KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 11 nov 2026, 18:32 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Punto medio del book selezionato
Before Jan 1, 2028 · —
Caricamento del book selezionato…
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Prezzo registrato
Before Jan 1, 2028 56.5%In testa tra 3 esiti
Before Jan 1, 2028 56.5%Qualità del mercato
35 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Open interest
1,3K USD
Open interest bassoBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2028Spread
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 45 minuti fa
In ritardo17 set 26, 00:00 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Il grafico e le variazioni mostrano probabilità storiche salvate, non il book selezionato in tempo reale.
Trend
Riga selezionata: punto medio del book. Altre righe: riferimenti salvati, eventualmente normalizzati; le variazioni a 24h usano lo storico salvato.
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Profondità di mercato · Before Jan 1, 2028
Caricamento del book selezionato…
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US implement AI incident reporting requirements by 2028?
Manifold MarketsIf an AI incident kills 100+ before 2030, will the US enact binding pre-deployment evals within 18 months?
Manifold MarketsIf the US does not enact binding pre-deployment evals before 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ by 2036?
Manifold MarketsIf ≥8 orgs are within 10x of frontier compute in 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ people by 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill the SAVE Act become law?
KalshiHow many reconciliation bills will become law from Nov 25, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026?
KalshiRegole
If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must require external reporting of serious incidents or dangerous near misses involving AI models or systems. This includes events causing or threatening serious physical, economic, environmental, privacy, or security harm, as well as significant loss of control or compromise of model security. The law's reporting trigger or definitions must identify serious, critical, material, significant, or catastrophic incidents, or set a harm or risk threshold excluding routine low-impact events. A broader reporting duty qualifies if it includes such a defined category. Confidential reports to an authority or designated external recipient and public disclosure both qualify. Internal reporting alone, voluntary programs, routine errors, and capability or risk assessments without an incident or dangerous near miss do not qualify. A general cybersecurity reporting law without an AI-specific reporting duty does not qualify. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the FRONTIER Act (H.R. 9925).
Regole per ogni esito
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.