Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezione1a
FutuurVerifica disponibilitàDati di risoluzione verificatiProbabilità implicita attuale
No 79%
No 79%Qualità del mercato
31 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
366,5 €
Bassa liquiditàTrader
8
Commenti
1
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 minuto fa
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028, who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States in the 2024, 2028, or 2032 presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be elected U.S. president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?
Manifold MarketsNY-14 House election: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez vote percent
KalshiWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the New York 14th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExRegole
This market will resolve based on whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is formally declared the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee for the 2028 U.S. presidential election at the Democratic National Convention (DNC).
- Primary Designated Source (PDS): the official roll call of delegates and the certification of the nomination by the Democratic National Committee.
- To count as the nominee, Ocasio-Cortez must receive the majority of pledged delegate votes required under DNC rules and be officially confirmed as the presidential nominee at the convention.
- Resolution Timing and First-Truth Principle: This market will generally resolve at the conclusion of the 2028 Democratic National Convention once the official nominee is declared.
- Resolution will prioritize the substantive reality of whether Ocasio-Cortez is or is not the Democratic nominee, not minor technicalities of process.
- Winning sufficient delegate support in primaries or caucuses before the convention (even if she secures the required delegate majority and the DNC publicly confirms it before the convention) is not enough to resolve this market to "Yes", unless the DNC modifies its procedures and makes a binding announcement of the nomination before the convention takes place.
