PolymarketFerméVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: Yes (100%)
Résolu: 9 mai 2026, 19:45
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Résultat Gagnant
Yes
À 7 jours
—
À 24 heures
32%
SurpriseProbabilité implicite actuelleOui 100%+0.7pt
Qualite du marche
49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
27,1 M €
Liquidité
2,4 M €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Spread serréVariation 7j
+90.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 79 jours
Obsolète13 janv. 26, 19:2430 juin 26, 0:00
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Ce marché est clôturé. Le trading fictif n'est disponible que sur les marchés ouverts.
Comparer les plateformes· Yes
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketCette pageMeilleur global | Faible | 100% | — | 27,1 M € | 2,4 M € | il y a 79 jours | |
 Manifold Markets84% de correspondance · auto | — | 3% | — | — | — | il y a 28 jours | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Manifold Markets
Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Fermés
Résolu
Non (97.5%)
97.5%
2.5%
Prévision communautaire32 prévisionnistesType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
- Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify.
- Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
- Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire.
- Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Marchés Associés
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by which date?
2,6 M €July 31: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
593,9 k €July 18: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
453,5 k €August 31: 71%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
41,5 k €Before Aug 1, 2026: 0%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
14 k €Vladimir Putin: 11%KALSHI
KALSHI
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
8,5 k €Barack Obama: 6%KALSHI
KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threatBlockchain.News
US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto as Middle East tensions riseCointelegraphRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
- Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify.
- Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
- Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire.
- Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.