PolymarketFerméVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesGrossièrement calibréCe marché s'est résolu: Yes (100%)
Résolu: 9 mai 2026, 19:45
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Résultat Gagnant
Yes
À 7 jours
—
À 24 heures
32%
SurpriseProbabilité implicite actuelleOui 100%+0.7pt
Qualite du marche
49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
27 M €
Liquidité
2,4 M €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Spread serréVariation 7j
+90.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 80 jours
Obsolète13 janv. 26, 19:2430 juin 26, 0:00
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Ce marché est clôturé. Le trading fictif n'est disponible que sur les marchés ouverts.
Comparer les plateformes· Yes
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketCette pageMeilleur global | Faible | 100% | — | 27 M € | 2,4 M € | il y a 80 jours | |
 Manifold Markets84% de correspondance · auto | — | 3% | — | — | — | il y a 29 jours | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Manifold Markets
Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Fermés
Résolu
Non (97.5%)
97.5%
2.5%
Prévision communautaire32 prévisionnistesType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
- Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify.
- Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
- Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire.
- Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
- Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify.
- Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
- Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire.
- Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.