PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Republican Party 93%En tête parmi 8 options
Qualite du marche
68 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
12,3 €
Liquidité
30,4 k €
Liquidité élevéeSpread
1.0 pt
Spread serréComments
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
28 janv. 26, 21:363 nov. 26, 0:00
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Règles
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — IA-04 House winner? · Chris McGowan 90%
Marchés ouverts
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+3.0pt18.9%
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.2%
+44 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 163 M €
- Volume 24h
- 919,3 k €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance+0.9pt23%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.4pt14%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt11%
+125 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt23%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt15%
- Jon Ossoff-0.1pt15%
+125 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- Golf / Golfer / Golfing99%
- Sleepy Joe99%
- Kamala99%
+28 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 582,1 k €
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham+4.0pt63.3%
- Ralph Norman-4.0pt28.4%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 12,7 M €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%
- J.D. Vance47%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
+125 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour IA-04 House Election Winner ?
- Polymarket cote Republican Party à 93% au 24 août 2026.
- Quand IA-04 House Election Winner sera-t-il résolu ?
- IA-04 House Election Winner doit être résolu le 3 novembre 2026.
- Comment IA-04 House Election Winner est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- Où IA-04 House Election Winner est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Kalshi.