MyriadProbabilité implicite actuelle
Oui 6.8%
Qualite du marche
40 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
311,6 €
Liquidité
1,3 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
-
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
17 déc. 25, 15:0931 juil. 26, 23:59
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
YES7%
Comparer les plateformes· NO
Trié par volume 24 h| Plateforme | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MyriadCette pageLa plus active | 93% | — | 311,6 € | 1,3 k € | il y a 11 minutes | |
 Manifold Markets | 92% | — | — | — | il y a 11 minutes | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Manifold Markets
Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?
23j
8.3%
91.7%
Prévision communautaire109 prévisionnistesType: binary
Volume total10,9 k €
Volume 24h0 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSRègles
**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date to July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Time:** This market will be resolved after the Market Close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Yes/No Criteria:**
- - Resolves to **"Yes"** if both Russia and Ukraine formally agree to a complete ceasefire through an official, publicly announced agreement before or at Resolution Time.
- The agreement must mandate a total cessation of all military operations—including but not limited to ground, air, naval, and cyber warfare—across all territories involved in the conflict (e.g., Ukraine, Russian-occupied territories, and border regions).
- Additionally, the ceasefire must be bilateral, with both Russia and Ukraine explicitly committing to halting all offensive and defensive military actions against each other, and it must apply to the entire conflict zone without geographic exceptions (e.g., it cannot exclude specific regions like Donbas or Crimea). - Resolves to **"No"** if all of the above conditions are not met before the Market Period ends
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
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**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date to July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Time:** This market will be resolved after the Market Close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Yes/No Criteria:**
- - Resolves to **"Yes"** if both Russia and Ukraine formally agree to a complete ceasefire through an official, publicly announced agreement before or at Resolution Time.
- The agreement must mandate a total cessation of all military operations—including but not limited to ground, air, naval, and cyber warfare—across all territories involved in the conflict (e.g., Ukraine, Russian-occupied territories, and border regions).
- Additionally, the ceasefire must be bilateral, with both Russia and Ukraine explicitly committing to halting all offensive and defensive military actions against each other, and it must apply to the entire conflict zone without geographic exceptions (e.g., it cannot exclude specific regions like Donbas or Crimea). - Resolves to **"No"** if all of the above conditions are not met before the Market Period ends