Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026?
One-OffChinaPolitiqueGéopolitique3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.9%
Prévisionnistes
212
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète18 sept. 23, 21:05 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2027?
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KalshiRègles
For the purposes of this question, Xi Jinping's leadership of China includes both formal titles (President, General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission) as well as his de facto leadership.
- If Xi ceases to hold all of his formal titles, but comes up with a new one and is still widely recognized as holding de facto power, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
- If Xi becomes ill and arguably "de facto" power is held for a short period by someone else, but Xi keeps any of titles during this period, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
- @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-88b203241f22
- @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-5440920441a8
- @/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-dc30a08f527f
Marchés ouverts
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 11,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 38,7 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volume total
- 356,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 13,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volume total
- 2,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 11 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : For the purposes of this question, Xi Jinping's leadership of China includes both formal titles (President, General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission) as well as his de facto leadership.