Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 23 oct. 2026, 17:42 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 84%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète27 juin 24, 12:32 UTC13 sept. 27, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves NO if William Ruto steps down or is removed from the position of the president of Kenya before his current 5 year term starting in Sep 13th 2022 ends.
- Otherwise resovles yes.
- Temporary incapacitation (e.g. hospitalization) does not resolve as long as Ruto is recognized within Kenya as the president.
- A de facto removal from office (e.g. coup) counts as NO, even if the change in leadership is not internationally recognized as long Ruto is unable to exercise his authority over majority of Kenya's population for more than a month.
- Death counts as NO.
- Partially subjective resolution, I will not bet on this market.
