Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.4%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète29 août 23, 08:39 UTC1 janv. 85, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?
Manifold MarketsWill Earth have a Space Elevator before 2055?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a space elevator by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Earth have a Space Elevator before 2065?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a skyhook space structure placed in LEO before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2031?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES if the following is satisfied:
- A tether from earth to a counterweight beyond geostationary orbit
- Vehicles with capacity to lift over 1,000kg payload to geostationary orbit (presumably bigger but let's make it easy) by traversing the tether
- One successful deployment of such a vehicle and payload
- There was talk about doing this by 2050 (China, Japan), but I suspect that was a little overly optimistic.
- Other markets on manifold predict a start date (at time of writing) of 2069.
