Will we achieve AGI before Democrats win their next trifecta?
PolitiqueOne-OffIAPolitique américaineÉlection6a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 63.9%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète14 sept. 24, 22:09 UTC22 sept. 33, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Based on an aside from this post that mentioned the possibility of this happening: https://www.secondbest.ca/p/before-the-flood
- This market resolves YES if an AGI exists, according to the market linked below, before the next Democratic governing trifecta begins.
- @/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
- I will defer to that market's judgement for all questions about whether a certain system is an AGI or not.
- For this market, a Democratic governing trifecta means any period of time in which the Democratic caucus holds the majority in the U.S. House and Senate, and there is a Democratic president, unless the president is a lame duck president.
- In other words, it doesn't count the brief time between the new Congress and the new president being sworn in if the incoming Congress and outgoing president are Democratic but the new president is not.
